Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks NCAA Football Week 3 and NFL Week 2

 


The Gold Lot Sports crew went 5-1 last week on our college and NFL picks.  We come into the second week of the NFL season and the third week of the college football season at an overall record of 8-4.  If you haven't gotten on our non-expert train yet, start running to catch up.

Gamble responsibly.

Brian Torchia – 2021 Overall Record: 5-1 (3-1 NCAA, 2-0 NFL)

Virginia Tech Hokies @ West Virginia Mountaineers - WVU -2.5

As a child of the Backyard Brawl era, it pains me to say that I'll be rooting for West Virginia this week.  But alas, that's the nature of gambling.  

In all honesty, I don't know a single thing about the makeup of the Mountaineers team this year.  This is just another one of those number plays that just doesn't make much sense to me.  West Virginia is 1-1 this year, with a loss to Maryland and a 66-0 win against FCS team Long Island.  They're going up #15 Virginia Tech, who is 2-0 with one of those wins being an upset against #10 North Carolina in Week 1.  

So why is West Virginia favored in this game?  Most of the time, home field advantage accounts for 2.5-3 points worth of spread so oddsmakers are basically saying this is a pick 'em on a neutral field.  I'm picking up what the sportsbooks are putting down here and like the Moutaineers to win this by at least a field goal.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - GB -11.5

Often, the time between Week 1 and Week 2 in the NFL is where overreactions occur.  Teams either come out spectacularly or sluggish in Week 1 and the media raves about it all week afterwards.  The Green Bay Packers would most certainly fall into the latter.  

After getting trounced by the New Orleans Saints 38-3 in Week 1, the talk this week revolved around what is wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Personally, I'm not reading too much into that game.  The Packers were facing a tough Saints team on the road and they just came out of the gates slow.  I'm confident that they've put that in the rearview mirror and have their sights set on division opponent Detroit. 

Green Bay gets to play at home this week and we all know how capable this offense is with the dynamic duo of Rodgers and receiver Davante Adams.  Plus, I just don't have a lot of faith in the Lions in their first year under head coach Dan Campbell.  Sure, they made a big comeback against the San Francisco 49ers last week to just fall short at the end.  But I think Green Bay will be out for blood this week, trying to prove that last week was nothing but a fluke.  

11.5 points is a lot to give but I'm confident in the Packers flipping the script this week and giving the Lions a taste of what they were put through last week against New Orleans.

  

Antonio Wolfe – 2021 Overall Record: 3-3 (2-3 NCAA, 1-0 NFL)

UCF Knights @ Louisville Cardinals – UCF -7

UCF has continued to be disrespected year in and year out.  However, it appears the Knights are finally getting the recognition they deserve, being favored on the road against a Power 5 opponent. 

UCF’s offense is once again the real deal.  Somehow, the Knights continue to recruit offensive players that can keep up with the pace they like to play.  In their opener against Boise State, the Knights ran 85 plays for a total of 573 yards.  Then, in their game against Bethune-Cookman, they ran 86 plays for 671 yards and scored 63 points.  Bethune-Cookman will not amount to much, but Boise State is expected to win the Mountain West conference.  Putting 36 points up against them is impressive, and that’s after needing to shake off some offseason rust and not scoring a point in the 1st quarter.

Also, I watched the Louisville Cardinals loss to Ole Miss in their opener.  The Cardinal defense looked absolutely gassed by the Rebels pace of play.  It showed in the final score of 43-24 in favor of the Rebels.  Also, the Louisville offense did not look as advertised.  They had the inability to move the ball in the first half and the Louisville offensive line looked terrible.  The receivers didn't help quarterback Malik Cunningham either with several drops.

While I expect both offenses to find the end zone, I do not expect the Cardinals defense to keep pace with the Knights offense.  UCF by at least a touchdown.

 

UCF Knights @ Louisville Cardinals – Over 67.5

Reread the above justification in regards to UCF's offense as to why I like the over here.  After giving up 43 to Ole Miss, I have no trust in the Cardinals defense.  However, the Cardinal offense has had their struggles as well.  I don’t expect them to score much more than 20-24 points.

So why am I taking the Over with little trust in the Louisville offense?  Because UCF is always playing to impress someone in the little opportunities they have.  Whether it be the Playoff Selection Committee, the New Year’s Six Bowl Committee, or Power 5 conferences, UCF is constantly working to prove themselves against Power 5 competition. 

Therefore, they never let up, especially against a Power 5 opponent.  They could be up 21 in the 4th quarter and they will not slow down their offense.  It is how they are and have always been since becoming relevant five or so years ago.  And it worked, as they are going to be one of the Big 12's newest additions.

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Under 47

We tweeted this pick during the Week 1 Monday night game when the line was still at 49.  The Raiders offense looked absolutely terrible against the Baltimore Ravens defense in the 1st half.  However, I thought the Raiders defense looked very good against Lamar Jackson, one of the toughest quarterbacks to game plan against.  That leads me to this pick for two reasons: the Steelers defense is better than the Ravens and the Steelers offense is worse than the Ravens.

In order for the Ravens and Raiders to score over 47 on Monday Night Football in Week 1, it took a 4th quarter where 27 points were scored.  Due to the Steelers and Raiders offenses, plus the Steelers defense I do not foresee a quarter on Sunday where 27 points are scored.  Additionally, the Steelers are committed to using rookie running back Najee Harris more which will run some clock.  My only worry here is if the Steelers can’t stop Darren Waller as they have had trouble with superstar tight ends in the past.  I’m still comfortable with the pick here even though the line has moved since Monday night – under 47.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears – Bengals +125 Moneyline

I know, it is hard to pick a conference opponent, especially to win.  I just think the Chicago Bears are in absolute disarray right now.  They don’t know if they want to play former Bengal Andy Dalton or just go with rookie quarterback Justin Fields.  The one thing the Bears do typically have going for them at home is the extreme cold, but with this being a Week 2 game in early September, that shouldn’t play a factor. Also, the Bears defense really showed some aging against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football.

Additionally, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is a winner.  He showed it last season before getting hurt, and he showed it last week with a gritty win in overtime against the Minnesota Vikings.  This pick, however, is more about how little I think of the Bears than how high I am on the Bengals.  I think Burrow wins this one before getting beat up by the Steelers in Week 3.

 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers – New Orleans -3.5

This line was so fishy I almost didn’t take it.  The Saints should absolutely be a heavier favorite against the Panthers than just 3.5.  They whooped up on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers 38-3 after being uprooted from their home in New Orleans. They made Rodgers look worse than he ever has in his career.  Also, the Carolina Panthers only beat the New York Jets 19-14.   The books are begging you to take the Saints giving the points.  Typically, in these cases I don’t fall for it.  I am this time.

I’m a firm believer Jameis Winston always had the talent to be a productive starting quarterback.  However, he needed a good head coach to reign him in.  I love Bruce Arians, but he’s more of a let loose kind of guy.  Sean Payton is happy to let Alvin Kamara handle most of the touches and let Winston pass when needed.  

Plus, it looks like Winston’s offseason Lasik surgery worked as he passed for five touchdowns last week.  More surprising even than the touchdowns is the zero interceptions he finished with.  I like the Saints here by at least a touchdown.

 

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