Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks NCAA Football Week 4 and NFL Week 3

Brian Torchia - 2021 Overall Record 7-1 (4-1 NCAA, 3-0 NFL)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Cavaliers - Under 68.5

If you've got nothing else to do on this Friday night and wouldn't mind watching a future Pitt opponent, this is the game for you.  2-1 Virginia, who Pitt hosts November 20th, welcomes 3-0 Wake Forest to Charlottesville this week.  The Cavaliers come into this game following a tough 59-39 loss at North Carolina.  Yep, 98 points! Which is why I think we're seeing such a ridiculously high total for this game.

Of the six games these two teams have played so far this year, only the Virginia game against North Carolina has cleared this 68.5 total.  Prior to that, Virginia had only given up a total of 14 points in their first two games.  And in Wake Forest's three games this year, they've only surrendered 40 total points.  I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to last week's shootout in Chapel Hill and I'm anticipating a low scoring affair in this ACC showdown.  It's no fun to root against points being scored but that's exactly what I'll be doing to ring in the weekend.  

*As a little bit of a disclaimer, the only other game total I've written up here this year is the one blemish on my record so hopefully we can avoid that this time around and keep this heater going.*

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders - Dolphins +4

I know what you may be thinking... but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't playing this week!  Worry not, my friend.  There are two things that I feel are in our favor here.  First, this line opened as Raiders -1.  Once the announcement was made that Tua would miss this game due to fractured ribs, this line shot up to Raiders -4.  In my opinion, 3 points of line movement is a little bit of public overreaction.  Tua is a valuable member of this team, but I'm not so sure he is as valuable as the line movement suggests.  Jacoby Brissett, who will be filling in for him this week, is no stranger to being called upon to start games in the NFL, most notably doing so for the Indianapolis Colts when Andrew Luck surprisingly announced his retirement right before the season started.  I believe his experience will be beneficial to this offense, allowing them to keep this game close.

The second factor is this is still the Raiders we're talking about.  I am still waiting for the letdown to hit this team after two shocking victories to start the season against the Baltimore Ravens and our beloved Pittsburgh Steelers.  They're playing above their potential thus far and are due for some negative regression.  And it sure seems like the sportsbooks feel the same way.  As mentioned above, this line opened at -1, when Tua's status for the game was still in limbo.  That line seems awfully short for a Raiders team playing at home with two notable wins on their resume, going against a Dolphins team that just got shut out, 35-0, by the Buffalo Bills in Miami.  With it now at Dolphins +4, I feel comfortable jumping on the Jacoby bandwagon.  

Antonio Wolfe - 2021 Overall Record: 5-6 (3-4, 2-2 NFL)

Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills - +7.5

This pick has nothing to do with me thinking the Washington Football Team is a good football team.  I thought before last week they had a great defense, but great defenses do not give up 29 points to the New York Football Giants.  So while I will downgrade the "great" tag, I will still tag the WFT defense with a good.

My pick is based around Taylor Heinicke flawlessly transitioning into the starting role on last Thursday night.  Heinicke had to take over for injured Ryan Fitpatrick.  He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns.  He also showed an ability to use all of his weapons.  

Four different players had five or more receptions last Thursday and Heinicke recognized how useful running back J.D. McKissic can be as a receiver on third downs.  Also, catching 11 passes against the Giants, Terry McLaurin is showing he is an elite talent and Heinicke is not afraid to feed him.  With another week to prepare as the starter, I like Heinicke continuing his progression.

I think the Bills win, but 7.5 is way too high for a professional football game.  The Football Team keeps this one within a touchdown.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers - -3

Until proven otherwise, Ben Roethlisberger still owns the Cincinnati Bengals at Heinz Field.  The Steelers have not lost to the Cincinnati Bengals at home since 2015, and have only lost twice total in that span.  

Yes, the Steelers are pretty banged up.  And yes, the offense has looked terrible to this point, but Cincinnati proved last Sunday they are not a good football team.  I had them winning against the Bears and they showed an inability to move the ball on Chicago's aging defense.  I think even with all of the injuries, the Steelers defense is still better than Chicago's.  They proved that much against the Raiders last week.

I don't see either team scoring much, but the Steelers win here by at least the home-field-courtesy 3 points.