Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks NCAA Football Week 5 and NFL Week 4


Brian Torchia - 2021 Overall Record 9-1 (5-1 NCAA, 4-0 NFL)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers - Steelers +6.5

I know it's tough to bet on the Steelers after watching them last week and with how the Packers have been trending, but there are some trends here that definitely favor Pittsburgh.  

First, it appears that T.J. Watt and Diontae Johnson will return from injuries this weekend, adding key weapons to both sides of the ball.  Wide receivers Chase Claypool and Juju Smith-Schuster picked up injuries during last week's game but both practiced yesterday so it appears as if they will play too.

Secondly, the Steelers have been monsters as underdogs under coach Mike Tomlin.  Tomlin is 18-6 against the spread as a road underdog against winning teams.  Plus, there's been a lot of talk in the media this week about Steelers finally hitting a wall after last week's loss to Cincinnati and I think that will only add fuel to the fire.  If you can find this number at the +7 it opened at, I'd definitely advise taking it but I don't see it getting back to that so +6.5 will suffice.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos - Ravens ML

The Ravens head into this matchup with a 2-1 record, fortunate not to be 1-2 thanks to a little help from kicker Justin Tucker's leg and some poor officiating.  In case you missed the end of their game last week against the Detroit Lions, the Ravens squeaked out a 19-17 win on an NFL record-breaking 66-yard field goal at the buzzer.  The play prior, the Ravens should have been called for a delay of game but the officials missed it, allowing the Ravens to stay just within striking distance for Tucker.  So to say that the Ravens enter this week's matchup with a little luck on their side would be an understatement.

But this pick has more to do with the Broncos than it does the Ravens.  The Broncos are sporting a perfect 3-0 record going into this home matchup with Baltimore.  However, the three teams the Broncos have beaten thus far are the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets.  Those are arguably three of the four worst teams in the league.  So I think the hype surrounding Denver is fairly undeserving.  I like the Ravens to win this one and bring the Broncos back down to earth.

Antonio Wolfe - 2021 Overall Record: 5-8 (3-4 NCAA, 2-4 NFL)

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Maryland Terrapins - Maryland +3.5

Iowa is the #5 ranked team in the nation traveling to Maryland to take on the unranked Terrapins.  When I first saw the 3.5 point spread I loved it for Iowa.  Maryland has been told time and time again they don't belong in the Big Ten and have been the laughing stock of the conference since joining. 

However, this is a new Maryland team.  They look extremely effective offensively behind quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa.  The Terrapins have the 19th best offense in the nation.  And while the Iowa defense is 29th in the nation, their offense is worse than their defense is good.  Also, Iowa's ranking has been built upon beating teams that were ranked at the time, but have since become unranked.  The #5 ranking is artificial relative to Iowa's strength of schedule so far.  Maryland covers, and maybe even wins, at home tonight.

Pittsburgh Panthers @  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Over 57.5

There are two things I know for certain about this season's Pitt football team.  They score a ton of points and they give up a ton of points.  A lot of Georgia Tech fans are high coming off their win over North Carolina and Heisman candidate Sam Howell.  However, I believe Kenny Pickett is better than Sam Howell.  And in no sense did the Yellow Jackets completely shut down the Tar Heel offense.

Also, as recent as Tuesday this total jumped up to 59.5.  I thought it was going to reach 61 or 62 by the weekend and then I would have considered either the Under or staying away from it completely.  But with it sinking back down to 57.5, the Over is the play here.

Troy Trojans @ South Carolina - Troy +6.5

I see an unranked team from the Sun Belt Conference playing a team from the SEC and my brain thinks it is going to be a blow out in favor of the Power 5 squad.  Especially a Sun Belt team that is 2-2.  

I do not understand the line of +6.5, and that is why I am taking it.  A team from the SEC should be at least a touchdown favorite at home against Troy.  To me, that tells me the bookmakers are trying to get the bettors to take South Carolina.  They know something I don't so I'm taking Troy.  Plus, the sharps love Troy this week. 

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