Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks NCAA Football Week 7 and NFL Week 6

Antonio Wolfe - 2021 Overall Record: 8-11 (5-7 NCAA, 3-4 NFL)

Pitt Panthers @ Virginia Tech Hokies - Pitt -5
Saturday, 3:30 PM

I told as many people as I could that when Pitt opened at +1.5 over a week and a half ago, they needed to put as much as they could afford on that line.  I knew the line would swing even further in Pitt's favor when Notre Dame showed that the Hokie quarterback Braxton Burmeister is not good and their defense is overrated.  

For all of the game Notre Dame showed the inability of Braxton Burmeister to move the football through the air and then in the last two minutes the Irish exposed the Hokie defense as overrated as well.  Also, Burmeister is now banged up and the Hokie second string quarterback is injured.  Therefore, Pitt is either playing a hobbled starter or a third string QB.  

All of this caused the line to move to -5 in favor of Pitt.  I still like this line for Pitt, but I would not take it at any greater than -6.  I think at Heinz Pitt wins by double digits, but Blacksburg is still a difficult place to travel to.  However, Pitt wins by a touchdown in this one.

Pitt Panthers @ Virginia Tech Hokies - Under 58
Saturday, 3:30 PM

For all of the reasons above, I do not expect the Hokie offense to do much of anything.  Pitt already matched up well against a QB who does not pass the ball very well, and now he may be injured.  Additionally, I think this line is inflated by how well Pitt's offense has been performing.  

While I still believe VT's defense is overrated, they are the best Pitt has played so far.  They will bring pressure and test the Pitt offensive line which was a big question mark early in the season.  Eventually Pitt has to score less than 40 points and I think that will happen Saturday.  I like the Under in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers -5 
Sunday, 8:20 PM

The quarterback position is the single most important position in any major team sport.  Sure, Ben Roethlisberger is having a bad year.  However, he is still a Hall of Fame quarterback and had a decent bounce back game against a very difficult Broncos defense last week.  

Geno Smith, on the other hand, is neither a Hall of Fame quarterback nor is he expected to have a great game this week against the Steelers.  He is a career backup and the Seahawks will have to depend on the run.  Fortunately for the Steelers, Seahawks starting running Chris Carson has not practiced all week and, at this point, is expected not to play.  

It is difficult playing the Steelers defense when you are at full strength.  It is impossible when you are seemingly at half strength.  I also still think Ben likes to perform under the lights in primetime.   I like the Steelers winning here by a touchdown and going into the bye week on a two-game win streak.  

Brian Torchia - 2021 Overall Record 11-3 (5-2 NCAA, 6-1 NFL)

Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange - Syracuse +13.5
Friday, 7 PM

Not only will this game give us something to watch on Friday night but I also think we have a nice underdog spot on our hands.  So far this season, Clemson has looked horrible offensively.  The most points they've scored against an FBS school in 2021 is 21 points.  That's it.  This once high-flying offense has looked lost with former quarterback Trevor Lawrence now in the NFL.  And now they're giving a conference opponent almost two touchdowns on the road?

Now, the Tigers are coming off their bye week so they've had an extra week to try to iron out their offensive struggles.  But, I still think this is too many points to give the Orange at home.  Having +14 instead of +13.5 would be a nice security blanket but I don't expect it to matter too much.  I like Syracuse to keep this one close at the Carrier Dome.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns - Browns -3
Sunday, 4:05 PM

I took a peek at the lines earlier this week and this was the one that surprised me the most.  The Arizona Cardinals are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and yet, they are underdogs.  Most of the time, teams get about 2.5 points for playing at home but I still expected this to be closer to a pick 'em even with those points factored in.  The Browns being favored by this much out of the gate is pretty telling to me.

Also aiding the Browns here is that Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray looks to be feeling the effects of a shoulder injury that he suffered in last week's game against the San Francisco 49ers.  He was a limited participant in practice yesterday so there's a chance he may be playing at less than full strength this week.  Not to mention, top pass rusher Chandler Jones will miss this game due to COVID issues.  With this injury/COVID news, and seeing the opening line and its movement, I like the Browns here to win by at least a field goal. 

Pitt Panthers @ Virginia Tech Hokies - Under 58
Saturday, 3:30 PM

Additionally, I'd also like to endorse Antonio's Pitt under play as one of my plays.  To piggyback on what he said, this is the first true defense Pitt will face this season.  Also, water always finds its level - every Pitt game has gone over this year so they're due for an under.