Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks for NFL Week 17 and the NCAA NY6 Bowls

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Brian Torchia - 2021 Overall Record 19-12 (7-6 NCAA, 12-6 NFL)

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans - Titans -3.5
Sunday @ 1 PM

I've mentioned before in this article that I thought Tennessee was getting a little too much praise and was due for some regression as a result of their injuries.  However, since then hey were able to return receiver A.J. Brown and he has had a huge impact on the passing game and offense as a whole.

But just as much as I thought the Titans were getting overpraised, the Dolphins far exceed that.  This week, all I've been hearing is how they went from a seven-game losing streak to a seven-game winning streak.  Well here's the seven teams they've beaten in that span:  the Texans, the Ravens in a weird Thursday night game, the Jets, the Panthers, the Giants, the Jets again and the Saints this past Monday on their third string quarterback.  That's not exactly what I would call top-tier competition.  It's pretty telling that the Titans are favored in this game, and while I'd prefer this at -3, I still think the Titans win this by 4+.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers +3.5
Monday @ 8:15 PM

I try to have some sort of analytics or sound reasoning for every play I posted here over the course of the season.  However, this one is going to be more of a gut feeling and emotional play than all of the rest.

Here we have the Steelers, who we know have been a frustrating team to watch and bet on all year long, against their division rival Browns.  And as we also know, this is more than likely going to be Ben Roethlsiberger's last home game in the black and gold.  While it's been a turbulent season for this team, I don't see any way they let Ben's last home game end on a sour note.  Especially not against a team that Ben has dominated throughout his career.  And if you want to look at it from the other side, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off of a four interception game and hasn't looked healthy all season long.  This is just the perfect spot to send Ben out with a win in front of his home crowd one last time.  I don't hate the moneyline but I'll be taking the +3.5 just in case.

Antonio Wolfe - 2021 Overall Record: 20-22 (14-9 NCAA, 6-12 NFL)

Pitt vs Michigan State - Over 56
Thursday @ 7PM

I think this total is being artificially affected by those who are sitting out.  Obviously Pitt will be without Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett.  Michigan State will also be without once Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker III.  However, these two being out does not make up for just how bad I feel both of these pass defenses are.  

Did Pitt really step up against Wake Forest defensively?  Yes, they did.  However, I don't expect that two games in a row.  Also, Michigan State's pass defense really is that bad.  So even without Pickett, Nick Patti will still have Jordan Addison, Lucas Krull, and Gavin Bartholomew to throw to, while have Izzy Abanikanda, Vincent Davis, and Rodney Hammond keeping the box pretty full all night.  I still see Pitt putting up 30+ points and I don't see the Pitt defense shutting Sparty down to under 30 either.  

Georgia vs Michigan - Under 45
Friday @ 7:30 PM

This pick scares the hell out of me.  45 points in a college football game is a low total.  Brutally low.  However, the three best defenses I watched this college football season were Georgia, Penn State, and Michigan, and two of those teams are in this game.  Georgia's defense is outstanding.  

The only problem is they may be too good.  Turnovers can lead to quick scores which are bad for the Under.  However, turnovers in the red zone are an Under's best friend and that is what I am counting on.

Cincinnati vs Alabama - Cincinnati +13.5
Friday @ 3:30 PM

Look, I know.  You don't make money betting against Alabama.  In fact, when I went to make the bet the first time, my phone had a communication error pop up because the football gods really wanted to make sure I knew what I was doing.

However, as much as you don't make money betting against Alabama, Vegas does not lose 91% of the money coming in.  There is just no way, in one of the biggest bets game this month, at the end of a fiscal year, that Vegas will lose a bet where 90% of the money is coming in on a team.  And right now 91% of the money is on the Alabama spread.  Also, Bama actually has only covered six of their games this season, so maybe you really can make money betting against Bama.  I'm willing to find out.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals - Cincinnati +5.5
Sunday @ 1 PM

I think this line is outright rude.  To see how well Cincinnati played last week, regardless of their opponent this week, having as much on the line as the Bengals do at home, and make them more than a field goal dog, is rude to me.  I know the Chiefs looked great against the Steelers last week, but so does just about everyone the Steelers play on the road.  So I am not takin much from that game.  The Bengals also are at full health, and their offense is too good to be 5.5 point dogs at home.  I don't know if the Bengals win, but I do believe they cover.

Cody Flavell - 2021 Overall Record: 2-4 (2-0 NCAA, 0-4 NFL)

Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Jets (Jets+13)
Sunday @ 1PM

This is a weird one for me. I hate betting against Tom Brady but I don’t like putting my money on the Jets. So this seems like an easy one, right? Not so much. I’m a sucker for double-digit underdogs in the NFL because of how much parity exists throughout the league. However, watching him the past few weeks, Zach Wilson looks like he’s coming into his own as an NFL quarterback. I'm not anointing him a franchise quarterback by any means but he at least looks like he can survive in the league. He will be in the friendly confines of MetLife Stadium, a place Brady has also done his fair share of winning. The Bucs have already clinched a playoff spot by winning their division and the Jets are still playing for a great deal of pride. I’ll ride with the young gun to cover the 13-point spread this weekend.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (o47.5)
Sunday @ 8:20 PM

Nothing beats the late season divisional football games. The NFL’s best team squares off against a division rival playing with an outside chance of making the postseason. The Vikings will be without Adam Thielen after he underwent ankle surgery. They will be getting Dalvin Cook back, however, just in time to face a struggling Packers run defense. Kirk Cousins still has Justin Jefferson as a weapon through the air with K.J. Osborn handling an uptick in snaps over the final two games. The Packers offense is high-powered with reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers well on his way to winning another one and Devante Adams alongside Aaron Jones to help assist Rodgers. The Vikings did defeat the Packers earlier in the season 34-31 handing them one of their three losses. 47.5 feels like a low total for a game that should be full of back and forth. I see an avenue where the Vikings put themselves back into legit conversation for a playoff spot and spoil the Packers’ opportunity for a number one seed. I won’t be betting against Rodgers but it’s a bet that merits consideration if you like betting underdogs.