2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 1

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Ladies and Gentlemen, football is back!  We know, Week 0 for college football happened last weekend, but let's be honest, nobody wanted to watch Scott Frost disappoint Cornhusker fans again, right?  So this week, we are releasing our football betting picks for the first time of the 2022-23 seasons.  We will cover both College Football and the NFL again, as we did last season.  Also, a reminder that these numbers move throughout the week, so the lines we get are as of the time we publish the article, which is typically Thursdays around noon.  

Here we go!

Antonio Wolfe - 0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL

Pitt Panthers vs West Virginia Mountaineers - Pitt -7

Currently the Pitt point spread is 7 points on most books.  Honestly, at this point, if you can get Pitt at anything less than 10.5, take them.  Objectively, Pitt is the clear better team.  If you match up, position for position, every starter on either side of the ball, Pitt has the edge.  Pitt is also returning most of their starters from a team that won the ACC Championship, and then reloaded at quarterback and wide receiver with transfers Kedon Slovis and Konata Mumpfield.  

Where WVU fans have been commenting that Pitt won a weak ACC conference, they fail to remember that they finished at the bottom of a weak Big 12.  This isn't an SEC or Big Ten school coming into Acrisure Stadium.  This is a bottom-feeder Big 12 squad that hasn't been great on the road for three seasons now.  If this wasn't a rivalry, the point spread would, rightfully, be two touchdowns or more.

Pitt Panthers vs West Virginia Mountaineers - Under 51

While Pitt did return and reload a lot of great talent this offseason, they did lose their Heisman finalist quarterback and Biletnikoff winning wide receiver.  Kenny Pickett, of course, was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Jordan Addison was lured away by the scumbag of Southern California.  So while I still believe, as stated up above, that Pitt will win this game, I don't think they put up 40+ as effortlessly as it seemed they could last season.

Also, I believe the returning defensive linemen for Pitt will give the West Virginia O-line fits all night.  I actually think Pickett's prediction of 31-10 will be pretty accurate, although even a score of 34-17 pushes here.  I like the Under at 51, but wouldn't take it any lower.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Ohio State -17.5

This may seem like a big point spread for the #2 ranked team in the nation (Ohio State) taking on the #5 ranked team in the nation (Notre Dame).  However, Ohio State has perpetually proven they are a top-5 team in the country while Notre Dame perpetually shows why they are constantly overrated.  Life is full of uncertainties but three things we can be certain of are Death, Taxes, and Notre Dame proving they are overrated.  Ohio State, at home, on primetime, covers this spread easily.  

Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions - Penn State -3.5

I am a Pitt fan.  As a Pitt fan, I hate Penn State and West Virginia.  It's true.  

However, Penn State in a non-Covid affected year under James Franklin always starts off the season well.  Last season they started 5-0 and beat a ranked Wisconsin team on the road.  In 2019, they started the season 8-0 with two wins against ranked Big Ten teams, 2018 they started 4-0, 2017 was 7-0, and so on.  

You can go back several seasons, and in non-Covid affected seasons, James Franklin-led teams start the season off on a win streak.  I don't see this game being any different.  It'd be a touchdown spread if Purdue wasn't the home team and Purdue doesn't have a fierce enough home field advantage to swing the spread that much.  Penn State covers 3.5.

Brian Torchia - 0-0 NCAAF 0-0, NFL 0-0

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Pitt Panthers - Pitt -7, Thursday 7:00 PM

I'm always leery on taking one of my hometown teams, but the spot here is just too good for Pitt.  They come into this season without their star quarterback, Biletnikoff Award-winning wide receiver and offensive coordinator from last season, and this line reflects that.  However, I think this is too much of an overreaction to those losses.

Transfers Kedon Slovis and Konata Mumpfield have replaced Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison, respectively, and while their may be a dropoff, I don't expect it to be a significant one.  Especially against a West Virginia team that is far from the Mountaineers teams were used to seeing in past Backyard Brawls.  While I'm not anticipating a blowout, I do think the Panthers win convincingly and cover this number.  This line has started to move a bit but I think it's good up to 8. (I also lean to the under like Antonio).

Temple Owls @ Duke Blue Devils - Under 51.5, Friday 7:30 PM

I'm staying in the ACC with a Friday play for the people.  Here we have two terrible teams coming into this game on big losing skids - Temple is winless in their last 7 games and Duke is winless in their last 8 games.  Both teams also have new coaches and new quarterbacks, which could lead to a lot of growing pains.

When I saw two bad teams with completely new offenses facing off in Week 1, my Under sirens started blaring.  This game could be extremely sloppy and that greatly favors the under.  While both defenses are also lackluster, it may not take much to keep these two offenses off the board.  Simply put, this one could be ugly all the way around so I think it stays below the total.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Appalachian St. Mountaineers - App St. ML, Saturday 12:00

My last play of the weekend completes the ACC trifecta.  North Carolina goes on the road to Appalachian State after a 56-24 win against Florida A&M last week.  There's a lot going against the Tar Heels in this one, namely the loss of star quarterback Sam Howell to the NFL.  He was the lone playmaker on this team last year and while they did score 56 points last week in their first game without him, I'm not putting much stock into a win against Florida A&M.

Statistically, the Tar Heels have an uphill battle as well.  In their last 20 road games, North Carolina is 5-15 straight up.  Pretty telling that this team does not like playing on the road.  Also, I saw a stat this week stating that teams who have played a game already going up against a team that has yet to play a game are only 44% against the spread since 2007.  I see too much for the Tar Heels to overcome in this one, both on the field and on paper.  This is the only Mountaineers team I like to win this week.