2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 2, NFL Week 1


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Antonio Wolfe - 1-2-1, NCAAF 1-2-1,  NFL 0-0

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills - Rams +2, Thursday @ 8:20 PM

This is solely a trends play.  I think the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL and are most likely the favorite to win the Super Bowl this season.  However, the Rams did win the Super Bowl. And since 2010, the reigning Super Bowl Champions have only lost three times in Week 1.  You can take this one on the moneyline if you'd like but officially, I'm taking Rams and the points.

Pitt Panthers vs Tennessee Volunteers - Pitt +7, Saturday @ 3:30 PM

I'll be perfectly and brutally honest.  I don't think Pitt is going to win this game.  I believe it will be a very similar game to last week including high scoring and quick tempo.  However, it will be close, especially with Pitt as the home squad.  The touchdown spread is an insult.  It will be a field goal game one way or the other.  Pitt may lose, but they will cover.

Texas A&M Aggies vs Appalachian State Mountaineers - A&M -18.5, Saturday @ 3:30 PM

Appalachian State nearly beat North Carolina last week.  In fact, they should have on multiple occasions.  However, North Carolina is not a good football team.  Their defense is terrible and once the Tar Heels play some real opponents, their offense won't keep pace either.  Plus, App State was at home.  They're at A&M for this one, and I think coming off an emotional loss they get crushed.  I'm good giving the points here in what I expect to be a blowout.

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns - Carolina Panthers -1.5, Sunday @ 1PM

This is another trends play.  Here are the results of the Cleveland Browns Week 1 games since 2005:

 Loss, Loss, Loss, Tie, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss.  

I think that just about explains it, right?  Plus the Browns QB situation. Panthers by at least a field goal here. 

Brian Torchia - 1-1-1, NCAAF 1-1-1, NFL 0-0

Tennessee Volunteers @ Pitt Panthers - Over 66, Saturday @ 3:30 PM

Tennessee comes into this game on the road, favored against a higher-ranked opponent.  That usually screams red flag to me but I'm going in a different direction in this one.  I'll be rooting for points.  Last season, Tennessee played at the fastest pace in the FBS, averaging over 3 plays per minute.  They just scored 59 against Ball State last week and with that kind of tempo, there will be plenty of possessions in this game.

While Pitt didn't play all that fast last weekend, they really picked up the tempo towards the end of the game when they were playing from behind.  Based on the spread, that certainly seems like it could be the case again this weekend.  If they play with that late-game pace for even half of this week's game, I like this one to go over the total.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans - Texans +7.5, Sunday @ 1:00 PM

It's always scary backing a team like the Texans after the play we saw out of them last year but I think this is a good spot for them.  Quarterback Davis Mills won me over last year and rookie running back Dameon Pierce has all of the makings to do the same this season.  Their offense actually isn't all that bad and they're playing as an underdog at home against a division opponent, a very good trend for Week 1 bettors over the past few seasons.

While the Texans defense gives me some concern, the Colts replaced quarterback Carson Wentz in the offseason with Matt Ryan.  Ryan is no spring chicken and you have to think that the wheels will fall off at some point soon with him.  I'm not saying the Texans win this game but I certainly think they are capable of keeping this within a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings - Vikings ML, Sunday @ 4:25 PM

Once again, I'm looking to back a division game underdog at home.  In this one, the Vikings are only slight underdogs, with the line currently set at 1.5.  That being said, I think they win this game outright.  Their offense is the key to this, with quarterback Kirk Cousins leading the way.  He's been very good the past the few seasons, even if the negative media attention towards him likes you to believe otherwise.  Add in the other weapons of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and you get an offense that can put points up in bunches.

On the other side of the ball, you get quarterback Aaron Rodgers going into a season without his main target Davante Adams, who is now a Las Vegas Raider.  Adams accounted for almost 40% of Rodgers' passing yards last season, and nearly 40% of all of Green Bay's touchdowns last season (shoutout to Chris Raybon for the stat).  Although it is still Aaron Rodgers, that is a lot of production now gone from this Packers offense.  The Packers could take some time figuring out their new look offense, which makes me think the Vikings can take this one at home.

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