2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 3, NFL Week 2


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Antonio Wolfe - 1-5-2, NCAAF 1-3-2,  NFL 0-2-0

Look, it's been a rough start.  However, it took a Kedon Slovis injury and the Cleveland Browns first win in a Week 1 in 20 years to get here so it is what it is.  The past is the past.  I love the board this week, and we move on to Week 3.

Penn State @ Auburn, - Under 48.5 - Saturday @ 3:30 PM

This was a great game last season at State College and it lines up to be a great game again.  However, while I don't have a great feel for the spread, I think the Under is the way to go here.  

Last season the game ended 28-20, which would hit the Under total.  Meanwhile, Auburn is a mess at quarterback with T.J. Finley and Robby Ashford combining for one touchdown and four interceptions between the duo so far.  Also, Sean Clifford played one of his best games of his career last season and still only put up 28.  So with the Nittany Lions able to focus on the run defensively, and Clifford probably not having another perfect game, this time on the road, I think we can expect less scoring than last season.

Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech - Ole Miss -16.5 - Saturday @ 3:30 PM

Look, you don't have to tell me that I've struggled with 10+ point favorites this season in college football.  It hasn't boded well at all so far.  However, for everything that Ole Miss is on the offensive side of the ball, Georgia Tech is not. 

Ole Miss is coming off of a 59-point performance, albeit against  Central Arkansas, where lane Kiffin's new cast of transfers seem to have gelled.  Georgia Tech, however, has failed to replace last season's prolific playmakers in Jordan Mason, Kyric McGowan, and Jahmyr Gibbs.  They have put up just 27 points in two games.  I don't see Tech finding their offense against a defensive squad who has only given up one touchdown so far.  Ole Miss by a lot in this one.

Texas Tech @ NC State - Over 55 - Saturday @ 7 PM

I think the total for this game is set to under 60 for two reasons.  Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Slough was lost to a shoulder injury in the second quarter of their first game and NC State quarterback Devin Leary played really poorly in Week 1 against East Carolina.  However, I think both of these are artificially bringing down the total.

Texas Tech is in full air raid mode again.  They lead the nation with 411.5 passing yards a game.  No matter who their QB is they pass, pass, and pass.  Also, Leary had a huge bounce back game last week for the Wolfpack, accounting for six touchdowns.  With the injury to Slough looking like it has no effect on the Raider air raid, and the Leary bouncing back, this game should have more than 60 points, even with a great Wolfpack secondary.

Miami @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M -5, Saturday @ 9 PM

There are two previously top ranked teams that are desperately trying to save their reputation after embarrassing upset losses Week 2: Notre Dame and Texas A&M.  Well, I don't particularly like Notre Dame, and I love rooting against Miami.

Additionally, and I usually save this type of thinking for Brian, but I think the line here is awfully fishy.  Miami is the 13th ranked team in the nation and appears to have everything right going for them ever since Tyler Van Dyke took over at QB for the Hurricanes.  

Meanwhile, A&M just suffered the aforementioned embarrassing loss to Appalachian State at home.  That was followed by an even more embarrassing video of their midnight yell squad going viral for what essentially amounted to one of the corniest bit I've ever seen on the Internet, which is tough to do.  The college has tried their best all week to scrub the Internet of the video, that's how embarrassing it was.

So, why then would A&M, even at home, be 5-point favorites over the higher ranked team who appears to be playing much better?  That reasoning is why at the point of this writing, 73% of the money is on Miami.  When that many people don't understand the line, something is fishy.  That's when I go the opposite of the public.  One final point is that this will truly be Van Dyke's toughest test in his career with the Aggies defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints - Saints +2.5, Sunday @ 1 PM

Some teams just have the key for beating others.  Especially when they are divisional opponents, it just seems as if one team owns the other for sometimes many years.  Well, this is the perfect case of it.  The Saints haven't lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season since 2018.  That's six straight wins for the Saints against the Bucs.  

It has also been especially rare for the Saints to lose to the Bucs at home.  They've only lost to the Buccaneers at home twice in the last 10 seasons.  I think this game follows the trends and the Saints pull out a win straight up, but I'm happy to take the points here.

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers +2.5, Sunday @ 1 PM

This is a strange line.  Based on the explanation of the A&M/Miami game up above, I should take the Patriots.  It's a fishy line for the 0-1 Patriots, who showed no ability to move the ball against the Miami Dolphins, to be favored on the road against a team who just beat the defending AFC Champions.  

Typically, fishy lines mean the oddsmakers see something I don't.  However, in this case I think it's an overreaction to T.J. Watt's injury and the poor offensive output of the Steelers.  The Steelers defense still had plenty of playmakers to stop a below average Patriots offense, and Trubisky wasn't as bad as most are making him out to be.  The Steelers win their home opener on Sunday.


Brian Torchia - 3-2-1, NCAAF 1-2-1, NFL 2-0

#11 Michigan State Spartan @ Washington Huskies - Washington -3, Saturday @ 7:30 PM

Normally, I like to have a nice write up for each play, explaining my thought process behind it.  However, this is just a system play for me.  I don't know much about either team but in this one, we're seeing an unranked team favored against the #11 team in the country.  I'm going to take that every time because Vegas always knows.  This line stinks to the high heavens so I'm taking it.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions - Lions ML, Sunday @ 1:00 PM

Detroit comes into this one 0-1 after a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, while Washington enters off an impressive win against the Jaguars.  Yet, we're seeing the Lions favored by 1.5 points (-125 on the moneyline).  Yes, the Lions are favored for the first time in their last 25 games, coming off of a loss.  I think that's a good sign for a team on the rise.

While they did lose to the Eagles, and were down big for most of the game, the Lions showed a lot of toughness clawing their way back to only lose by 3.  I hope this isn't the Hard Knocks bias in me but I like the make up of this team and it certainly seems like coach Dan Campbell is getting the most out of his guys.  Even though Washington quarterback Carson Wentz threw for 4 touchdowns last week, I'm expecting a bit of regression back to the mean out of him here.  After all, it is Carson Wentz.  Give me the Lions to win this one.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants - Panthers ML, Sunday @ 1:00 PM

I'm going to the moneyline once again, this time with a slight underdog.  Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield got his revenge game out of the way last week after the Browns moved on from him, and although it ended with a loss, I still think he has some talent left (even though I might be on an island by myself on this one).  Combine that with an offense that still has some solid pieces on it in running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver D.J. Moore, and I think this team can put up some points.  

However, the main reason I like the Panthers here is I'm not ready to buy into this new-look Giants team just yet.  It seemed like just about everyone was hyping up the Giants after their big win last week and the resurgence of running back Saquon Barkley.  However, it took a ballsy Giants two-point conversion and last second missed field goal by the Titans for the Giants to escape with a 1 point win against a downward-trending Tennessee team.  I think this line is a complete overreaction to last week - I like the Panthers to bring the Giants back down to Earth here.

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