2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 4, NFL Week 3


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Brian Torchia - 5-3-1, NCAAF 2-2-1, NFL 3-1-0

#5 Clemson Tigers @ #21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Over 55.5, Saturday @ 12 PM

Here we have a clash between two ranked teams in the ACC with contrasting makeups.  Clemson, yet again, has a staunch defense but has struggled offensively to move the ball.  On the other side, Wake Forest, like last year, has a high-flying offense that has put points on the board in bunches but their defense is quite leaky.

I like the offenses to prevail in this game.  Wake Forest is averaging 42 points per game this year and I think they can score on this Clemson defense that is known for shutting down offenses.  Conversely, I also think the Clemson offense is decent enough to score on this poor Wake Forest defense.  When these two teams faced off last year, Clemson won 48-27.  While I think it will be a little closer this time, I expect the total points to be similar.


Duke Blue Devils @ Kansas Jayhawks - Kansas -7, Saturday @ 12 PM

No, this is not a blue blood basketball matchup I'm talking about.  I don't think anybody expected both of these teams to be 3-0 when they faced off in Week 4, but here we are.  The difference between these two starts, however, is the opponents they've faced.

Kansas has two road wins so far against West Virginia and Houston, two reputable football programs.  Meanwhile, the toughest opponent Duke has played is Northwestern, who hasn't been good for quite some time.  I think that's a huge factor in this game and although the line has dropped from 9 to 7 throughout the week, that doesn't scare me off of the Jayhawks.  I think they win this by at least a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts - Colts +6, Sunday @ 1 PM

This is the hold your nose play of the week.  The Colts have looked downright awful the first two weeks, plain and simple.  They tied the lowly Houston Texans in Week 1 and then were shutout last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.  So why am I taking them you ask?  Great question.

This is their first time playing at home and I don't think they are as bad as the past two weeks have shown.  They still have the best running back in the league and I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to the first two weeks.  While the Chiefs are 2-0, their offense doesn't look as electric as it has in past years with the departure of Tyreek Hill.  Also, the Chiefs head to Tampa next weekend for Sunday Night Football, so this could be a prime look-ahead spot to take advantage of.  I wouldn't take this any lower than +6 but I do think the Colts can keep this one close.

Antonio Wolfe - 3-9-2, NCAAF 3-5-2,  NFL 0-4-0

Maryland @ Michigan - Michigan -17, Saturday @ 12 PM

I've been bitten by these large 3-score spreads before, but Michigan is blowing teams out this season.  I mean, pack your bags and get on the bus after the 1st quarter blowouts.  I know the opponents haven't been at the level of a Power-5 Maryland team, but John Harbaugh has owned Maryland in his time at Michigan.  The Wolverines are beating the Terps by an average of 33.7 points in Harbaugh's career.  I don't mind giving the points here, especially at the Big House.

Clemson @ Wake Forest - Clemson -7.5, Saturday @ 12 PM

I am so tired of hearing about Wake Forest.  They're being treated like the up and coming ACC team whilst being the ACC Championship loser last season.  Wake Forest's defense stinks more than Clemson's offense does, and Clemson's defense is going to outclass the Demon Deacons offense.  I think Clemson, even on the road, wins by 10+ in this spot.

USC @ Oregon State - Over 70.5, Saturday @ 9:30 PM

This is a fun pick.  USC is averaging over 50 points per game, while Oregon State averages 45.7 ppg.  This could be one of those games where we see multiple one-play touchdown drives.  It may also go well into Sunday on the East Coast.  Who doesn't love a late night play, right?

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets - Bengals -6, Sunday @ 1 PM

Look, there's only so much time this Bengals offense is going to remain suppressed.  Objectively, the offense did get better over the offseason, even though they haven't shown it yet, by beefing up their offensive line.  The Bengals still also have one of the best wide receiver corps in the league and one of the best quarterbacks, despite him showing how soft he can be by deleting his social media this week.  If there were ever an opponent to finally let the Bengals offense loose it'd be the Jets defense.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots - Ravens -2.5, Sunday @ 1 PM

I think this line is an overreaction to the Ravens 4th quarter collapse against the Miami Dolphins last week.  The Ravens, and Lamar Jackson, are solid offensively.  Against any defense, they're going to put up some points.  

Also, against that same Dolphins team, the Patriots looked terrible Week 1.  The Patriots didn't look that much better against the Steelers last week.  It just turns out the Steelers truly have one of the worst offenses in the league.  I think the Ravens are the clear superior team here and win by at least a field goal.
 

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