2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 5, NFL Week 4


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Brian Torchia - 8-3-1, NCAAF 4-2-1, NFL 4-1-0

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals -3.5, Thursday @ 8:15 PM

I know the Bengals haven't looked great so far this year but this is more of a pick against the Dolphins.  Although they're 3-0, I think it's a lucky 3-0.  Last week, they only ran 39 plays against the Buffalo Bills, compared to 90 for the Bills, and still somehow pulled out the win.  Now, they're playing on short rest and their defense could see some lingering effects from defending so many plays in the sweltering Miami heat last week.

Also in that game, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took a huge hit and got up woozy and stumbling.  He was somehow able to return to the game, even though he looked concussed, but is now questionable for this game.  It's looking like he will most likely play but I doubt he will be at 100%.  I think the Bengals hand the Dolphins their first loss of the year pretty convincingly.

#17 Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi State Bulldogs - Miss St. -3.5, Saturday @ 4 PM

It should be no surprise to see me list this game as I typically take unranked favorites against ranked teams.  But I do actually like this play for more than just that reason.

I watched a good bit of the Texas A&M game last week against Arkansas and they were extremely fortunate to escape with a win.  A last-second missed field goal by Arkansas off the top of the post saved the day for the Aggies, but ultimately they looked horrible all game long.  They couldn't move the ball whatsoever and they haven't scored more than 23 points in their last 3 games.  

Now they go up against the high-flying Mississippi State offense, led by head coach Mike Leach and his gun-slinging mentality.  While I wish it was -3, and maybe it will get there by game time, I think the Bulldogs take care of an overrated Aggies team.

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens - Ravens +3, Sunday @ 1 PM

I know the Bills appear to be the best team in the NFL but the Dolphins made them look human last week, regardless of how fluky their win may have been.  As I mentioned before, they're coming off a big loss in the 90 degree Miami weather and now they have to head to Baltimore to face off against quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has looked spectacular so far this year.

Jackson has looked much better throwing the ball this year and as always, is still capable of beating teams with his legs.  Now, he gets to face a Bills defense that is dealing with a lot of injury issues.  This game feels like it should be more of a pick 'em so I'll happily take 3 points with a team that can definitely win the game at home.

Antonio Wolfe - 5-12-2, NCAAF 3-8-2,  NFL 2-4-0

After missing all three NCAA picks last week, including an embarrassing Over pick that wasn't even close, I am taking off college football for a week.  All my picks, after a 2-0 week will be from the NFL Week 3.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals - Over 48, Thursday @ 8:15 PM (WITH CAUTION)

I'll join Brian in the Thursday fun.  While I also really like his pick of the Bengals -3.5, I also like the Over in this one.  Primetime games this season so far have been B-O-R-I-N-G Boring.  Snoozefests.

I think this time though, even on short rest for both teams, we finally get a great game.  Both teams feature two of the best receivers corps in the league with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd up against Waddle and Hill.  We should see some solid offensive play.

I make this pick with caution, however, because I will be waiting for status updates on Waddle and Tua before I place the bet.  If both are active, I expect the total to move upward quickly, and I'm willing to take that risk.  

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles -6.5, Sunday @ 1PM

I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars are much improved from last year.  Trevor Lawrence appears to be progressing nicely, and they just stomped the Los Angeles Chargers.  However, I don't think Justin Herbert was fully healthy, and it showed.

Also, nobody is stopping the Eagles this year.  Jalen Hurts looks great and they, too have a great receiver corps.  Especially in a hostile place like Philadelphia, I think the Jaguars show they're still not quite there yet and the Eagles whoop them in this spot.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - KC -1, Sunday @ 8:30 PM

Kansas City doesn't look as prolific in previous years without Tyreek Hill on their roster, but they still have the one of the best offenses in the league with the best quarterback.  They were a Travis Kelce catch away from being undefeated and they still appear to be among the best AFC teams.  

I also think the Bucs look bad.  For once, it appears Tom Brady is not enough to will his team to victory every Sunday.  I know they get Mike Evans back this week, but I don't think it will matter.  Whether it's the amount of pressure Brady has been getting or the off-the-field issues he's dealing with, it looks like there is finally a chink the armor.