2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 6, NFL Week 5

 


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Brian Torchia - 10-3-2, NCAAF 5-2-1, NFL 5-1-1

#11 Utah Utes @ #18 UCLA Bruins - Utah -3.5, Saturday @ 3:30 PM

I was very close to writing up UCLA last weekend, when they faced off against #15 Washington at home.  As 3 point underdogs, they ended up winning outright by 8, which is why I believe we're seeing the line this low for their game against Utah.

However, the reason I'm now going against the Bruins is that I believe the Utes are a much better team than Washington.  Yet, the spread is still essentially the same as it was last week against Washington.  I think this spread is a little too much of an overreaction after last week and should be much higher.  Utah has a few quality wins already this year and their only loss was an opening week heartbreaker in the Swamp against Florida.  I think Utah brings UCLA back down to Earth this weekend.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets - Miami -3, Sunday @ 1 PM

Although I took the Cincinnati Bengals last Thursday to cover against the Dolphins because they were a bit overrated, I'm more than willing to take them this weekend.  After that game (and it was pretty well known that quarterback Tua Tagavailoa wouldn't play after the scary scene in that Thursday game) and prior to the Jets game against the Steelers, the line opened for this game at Dolphins -6.  Then, the Jets beat the Steelers and this dropped to -3.

As tough as it may be for us Steelers fans to admit, this team is not one of the better teams in the league.  Therefore, I'm not putting too much stock into a win against them, especially against a quarterback getting his first professional action.  And I certainly don't think that win warrants a 3 point line movement in the market.  New Dolphins quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is known for covering the spread and I think he adds another one to his resumé this weekend.

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots - Under 45.5, Sunday @ 1 PM

A stat that has been circulating the World Wide Web this week is that the Detroit Lions currently lead the league in points scored per game and points allowed per game, both at 36.  Last week, they played in an absolute shootout against the Seattle Seahawks, with the final score being 48-45.  Yet, this week we're seeing a total for the game of just 45.5.

That raises some red flags for me.  While the Lions now must play away from the dome and the Patriots are a bit of a different animal than the Seahawks, this still seems a little fishy to me.  It might be gross but all signs are leading me to taking this under.  As I like to say, Vegas always knows more than I do and this looks like one of those cases yet again.

Antonio Wolfe - 7-13-2, NCAAF 3-8-2,  NFL 4-5-0

Let's continue this 4-1 stretch over two weeks by just focusing on the NFL.

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers - Giants +7.5, Sunday @ 9:30 AM

The Packers are only technically the home team since both teams will travel to London for this one.  These London games are typically pretty low scoring, and I expect the same with these two defenses.  

The problem is, the total of 41 is pretty low, especially with Saquon Barkley and Aaron Rodgers are either side of the offenses.  So the total is off the table for me.  But when you like the under, you should also like the underdog, and I do like both here.  The Giants will not win the game outright against a Packers team that has looked extremely difficult to score on this season, but that more than a touchdown spread is insulting to this season's Giants team who has taken a giant step forward in 2022.

Some books may have it at 8 so shop around. 

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints - Seahawks ML +190, Sunday @ 1PM

I don't love this play.  There's no reason I shouldn't just take the points and be happy with a field goal win by the Saints.  But there's something about this Seahawks team, man, I really like them.  

I love how Pete Carroll was able to evolve this team from a defensive juggernaut that won Super Bowls to a fun, offensive-minded team with a quarterback that everyone had written off.  DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are still premier wide receivers in the league, and apparently Carroll is more willing to let Geno Smith cook than he was willing to let Russ cook.  However, we're seeing maybe just how bad Russell has slid over at Denver.  

So I'm taking this Seahawks team straight up in the Superdome.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Buccaneers - 9.5, Sunday @ 1 PM

I have not been high on this Buccaneers this season, and rightfully so.  They look dysfunctional.  Tom Brady is getting hit too much, and his maybe all that plastic surgery affected his peripherals and ability to recognize the rush.

But it's still Tom Brady.  And a Brady-led team has not lost three straight since 2002.  He is also 10-0 all-time against Atlanta, and Tampa Bay has scored at least 30 in their dominance over the Falcons all four times they've faced them with Brady under center.  

Enough said.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals - Eagles -5, Sunday @ 4:25 PM

If you're reading these, you watch football.  And if you watch football, you know the Eagles are a juggernaut.  I'm just going to keep betting them until they don't cover.  Period.


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