2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 7, NFL Week 6

 


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Brian Torchia - 11-5-2, NCAAF 5-3-1, NFL 6-2-1

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan State Spartans - Over 49, Saturday @ 4 PM

It feels weird to be on a Wisconsin over but we're getting a different Wisconsin team here.  Prior to last week's game, they fired head coach Paul Chryst.  From his tenure as Pitt's head coach, I'm fully aware of the slog type of offense that he preferred to run.  However, with him out of the picture last week, the playcalling was handed down to former NFL receiver Bobby Engram and he really seemed to open things up.

Northwestern wasn't the greatest of opponents but the Badgers scoring 42 points is nothing to scoff at.  Plus, it looked as if Engram was more willing to pass the ball than Chryst ever was.  That's a good thing since Michigan State was the worst team in the country against the pass last season and hasn't gotten much better at defending it again this season.  While Wisconsin plays slow, Michigan State prefers to play quickly, which should help get more points on the board in this one.  It feels unconventional but I actually like the over in a Wisconsin game.

#4 Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles - FSU +3.5, Saturday @ 7:30 PM

This here is a pure play on the line.  We have the #4 team in the country sitting with a 6-0 record going playing a 4-2 Florida State team, who is coming off of two consecutive losses and could easily have a third if not for a few lucky plays in the opener against LSU.  Florida State is no easy place to play but this line still feels shorter than what I think it should be.  That makes me think it's a little fishy, which in a roundabout way makes me like the Seminoles getting more than a field goal here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks - Seattle +3, Sunday @ 4:05 PM

I never thought I'd be saying this in the year 2022 but Geno Smith appears to be a good quarterback.  His play has seemingly has come out of nowhere, but he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league so far from a metrics standpoint.  After putting up 80 total points in the last two weeks combined, now he gets an Arizona defense that has left a lot to be desired so far this season.

Now, the Seahawks defense has been just as bad but this Cardinals offense instills no fear in me.  They look completely inept at moving the ball and now they come into this game potentially down their top 2 running backs and still without star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins for another week.  I've always been a big fan of taking division game home underdogs and that along with everything else I've said makes me love this spot for Seattle.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs - Chiefs +3, Sunday @ 4:25 PM

I must admit that I'm a little concerned to be on three home underdogs by 3-3.5 points this week - that seems like a trend that could get me in trouble.  But I just can't pass up this spot.  I'm getting one of the best teams and home field advantages in the league as a 3 point underdog and it's just too good of an opportunity.

The Bills are coming off a whomping of our beloved Steelers and the Chiefs squeaked out a nail-biter against the Raiders on Monday Night Football, which could be a factor for the line we're seeing.  While I do believe the Bills are the best team in the NFL, I don't think the Chiefs are too far below them, especially when playing at home.  Not to mention, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 7-0-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career.  I'll take the field goal at home for the Chiefs.

Antonio Wolfe - 8-16-2, NCAAF 3-8-2,  NFL 5-8-0

Penn State @ Michigan - Penn State +7, Saturday @ 12 PM

I'm going to slowly dip my toe back into the college football betting pool and fade myself.  I would never take Penn State to cover against a Top 10 ranked team.   James Franklin has not fared well in these types of games, especially on the road.  

However, Michigan does not live up to their #5 ranking.  They have looked bad offensively, especially in the 1st half of games.  They just narrowly escaped a defeat against Maryland, and the eyeball test would tell you their wins against Iowa and Indiana were not as impressive as the final scores would lead you to believe.  

So while I do not think Penn State necessarily escapes this game with a victory, I do believe they cover the 7 points.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants - Giants +5, Sunday @ 1PM

I still don't think the bookmakers are giving the Giants the proper respect they deserve.  They are a 4-1 team with their only loss coming against a Cowboys team that somehow cannot be beat without Dak Prescott.  They are a top-tier NFC team who just beat a top-tier Green Bay Packers team.

So while I wouldn't love this line in Baltimore, I think the Giants do win this game at home against the Ravens.  I got burned taking a moneyline dog last week, so I'll take the points this week.  Giants either win or lose by a field goal in this spot and cover.

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins - Vikings -3, Sunday @ 1PM

The lone loss for the Vikings was a primetime game.  While some QBs flourish under the bright lights, Kirk Cousins does not.  Luckily, this game is at 1PM.  

Even though Tua returned to practice for the Dolphins, I don't think it particularly matters here.  The Dolphins have given up the 5th most passing yards so far this season, and I don't think they'll get any better with the connection that Cousins has established with Justin Jefferson.  

I expect a huge day from Jefferson again here and it being largely the reason the Vikings win on Sunday, and handily.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers +8, Sunday @ 1PM

This may seem like an emotional pick here, but it's not.  At least not my emotions.  But I am banking on Kenny Pickett's emotions.  This is Kenny's first start in Pittsburgh since his days at Pitt.  He will be charged up and will look even better than he did against the Bills.  

Also, the Bucs haven't particularly looked great this season.  They were in a spot last week, at home, where they should have blown out the Atlanta Falcons.  Instead, they didn't even cover, and may have lost had it not been for one of the softest roughing the passer calls I had ever seen (Until the Monday Night Football game when there was another one).

The Steelers may not pull out the victory here, but they keep within a touchdown.

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