2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 8, NFL Week 7

 


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Brian Torchia - 13-7-2, NCAAF 6-4-1, NFL 7-3-1

#7 Ole Miss Rebels @ LSU Tigers - LSU ML -130, Saturday @ 3:30 PM

There's a few fishy lines on the slate this week, and this is the one that caught my eye the most.  I feel like a broken record typing this out, but once again we have an unranked team as the favorite in a game against an opponent ranked in the Top 10.  And this time it's an undefeated Top 10 opponent.

LSU is 5-2 this year, with the 2 losses being to Florida State in a weird, fluky Week 1 game and against Tennessee, who has proved to be every bit legit, especially after the Volunteers beat Alabama last week.  The line is -2 in this game but I'm liking the Tigers on the moneyline better around -130, just as a little bit of insurance.

Memphis Tigers @ #25 Tulane Green Wave - Tulane -7, Saturday @ 3:30 PM

Admittedly, I don't know very much about these teams. However, this is more of a spot play than anything else for me.

Memphis is coming off of two heartbreaking losses in a row.  Two weeks ago, they blew a 26-7 lead against Houston in the fourth quarter and then last week, they lost in 4 overtimes after being up 17-0 early in the game.  Two devastating defeats in that nature can crush a team's spirit and I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out flat as a result.  On the other side, we have a newly-ranked Green Wave (such a great team nickname) team that should be flying high after cracking the Top 25.  I think Tulane controls this one from start to finish.

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars -3, Sunday @ 1:00 PM

If we're being honest, I don't love this fishy line spot as much as I do normally when I see lines like this, but it's worked out for me over the long haul so I have to stick to my guns.  Here we have the 5-1 Giants as underdogs on the road against a 2-4 Jacksonville team.  The Giants have been one of the NFL darling teams thus far, so ultimately I don't mind fading them here.

New head coach Brian Daboll has really turned this Giants team around and they are actually fun to watch now, but I'm not 100% sold on them just yet.  Running back Saquon Barkley has been spectacular to start the season and has helped lead them to this record, despite some continued questionable quarterback play by Daniel Jones.  I'm hoping the Jaguars defense can stymy the run game and force Jones into some bad plays.  Plus, I like Vegas saying that these teams would be just about equal on a neutral field.  I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope for a Jags win by at least a field goal.

Antonio Wolfe - 11-17-2, NCAAF 3-9-2,  NFL 8-8-0

Pitt Panthers @ Louisville Cardinals - Pitt Moneyline +115, Saturday @ 8PM


I don't like betting on my favorite team.  There is far too much emotion involved and sometimes I'm not considering the facts straight.  However, this one is clear.  Israel Abanikanda will run all over this Cardinal defense.  The Cardinals cannot stop the run and that's all the Panthers do.  Also, the spread tells me that Louisville is only getting the courtesy 3 points for being the home team.  This is essentially a pick 'em, and I'm picking Pitt.

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Giants +3, Sunday @ 1PM

This is a very fishy line.  And though I'm writing this before Brian puts his picks in, I expect he will pick the Jaguars because of how fishy it is.  The Jaguars should in no quantifiable way be the favorites.  The Giants are playing great football and have an elite defense.  That is why Brian will take the Jags.  Because Vegas always knows.

But I'm not falling for it this time.  I have made a good amount of money the past two weeks betting on the Giants to cover as underdogs.  And not only have they covered, they've won.  And that was against superior teams to the Jaguars in the Packers and Ravens.  I like the Giants here until they let me down.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders - Commanders +5, Sunday @ 1PM

This has nothing to do with how poorly the Packers offense has looked.  Although it really has looked that bad.  No, this is about the Commanders having a different starting quarterback in Tyler Heinicke.  And similar to teams occasionally better for an interim head coach, I think the Commanders will play better for their interim QB.  I also think Heinicke will finally take advantage of the great receiving corps Washington has.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins - Under 45, Sunday @ 8:20PM

Not only have NFL Unders been hitting at a high clip, but primetime Unders have been hitting at an even higher rate.  I know there's a chance Tua plays, and he's actually expected to at this point, but even if he does, I expect him to be hesitant.  Or at least the play calling may not expose Tua as much as it was before so we may see a more conservative game plan.  If Tua doesn't play, the Miami offense doesn't look good.

Also, the Steelers defense finally showed up last week against the Buccaneers.  I expect a good game out of them again.  Add that to the Steelers offense still not being a premier squad and I expect the Under to hit here.


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