2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 9, NFL Week 8

 


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Brian Torchia - 15-8-2, NCAAF 8-4-1, NFL 7-4-1

East Carolina Pirates @ BYU Cougars - ECU +3, Friday @ 8 PM

I know this seems like a pretty obscure game but it's always fun to have some Friday night football action.  Similar to my Tulane pick over Memphis last week, I think we have another spot here with a team really trending in the wrong direction.

Although they're favored in this game, BYU has looked abysmal in October.  They have yet to win a game this month, losing to Notre Dame, Arkansas and Liberty.  Notre Dame is amidst a horrible season and Liberty is in their first season removed from the Malik Willis experience, so those are definitely two games that this team should not have lost.  ECU had a pretty convincing win last week, beating UCF 34-13, as well as a 17-point comeback, 6-overtime win against Memphis the week prior.  These teams look to be going in opposite directions and I'm more than happy to get a field goal with what I feel is the better team in this game.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets - Under 40.5, Sunday @ 1 PM

Here's a fun fact - so far this season in the NFL, unders in games featuring two division opponents are hitting at 76%.  Pretty remarkable.

Not only do we have two teams that play in the same division here, but two teams whose offenses currently leave a lot to be desired.  The Patriots are mired in a quarterback controversy, with both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe playing in last week's game.  Reports are saying Jones will get the start in this one, which serves this under well as I feel he is not as skilled moving the ball through the air as Zappe is.  Then on the other side, the Jets lost their star rookie running back Breece Hall to an ACL injury last week.  With him out for the season, I expect their offense to take a hit and lose a good bit of explosiveness.  40.5 is a low number but I'm not anticipating too much scoring in this game.

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills - Packers +11.5, Sunday @ 8:30 PM

I'm looking at Sunday Night Football here for my last play.  The sputtering Packers head to Buffalo to take on arguably the best team in the NFL.  Aaron Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog before. Yet here we are, after the Packers lost their last three games, all of which they were the favorite.

I think this line is an overreaction to the Packers' recent play, some of which is due to revert back to the mean.  Like last week, when the Packers didn't convert a single 3rd down.  I certainly don't see that happening again if Rodgers has anything to say about it, especially given his success in primetime games.  This could be a hold-your-nose type of play but I think Rodgers and the Packers can keep this close.

Antonio Wolfe - 14-18-2, NCAAF 3-10-2,  NFL 11-8-0

That's it.  I'm giving up on NCAAF bets.  But I am on a six-pick win streak over the last two weeks in the NFL, so I'll stick to those.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bucs -2, Thursday @ 8:15PM

Tampa was embarrassed last week.  I know that.  And I haven't been high on them all season.

However, the Ravens also have been playing well below their expectations, especially Lamar Jackson.  Also, Tom Brady didn't actually play bad last week, despite what everyone on Twitter is saying.  If Mike Evans doesn't drop a wide open touchdown pass, he finishes with 400+ passing yards.  I think at home, the Bucs win this one by a field goal or more.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings - Vikings -3.5, Sunday @ 1PM

I love the Vikings this season.  They are firing on all cylinders during games that aren't played under the bright lights.  Anytime the Vikings are playing outside of primetime I will take them.  And just because the Cardinals look better with Deandre Hopkins, they aren't good.  The Vikings win this one handily.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams - Rams +1.5, Sunday @ 4:25 PM

This is an overinflated line in favor of the 49ers.  The only reason the 9ers are the underdog on the road in this one is because Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay to this point.  However, any time Sean McVay has an extra week to prepare, I'm going to back him.  He is one of, if not the, greatest football minds in the world and the bye week will help both him and Matt Stafford tremendously.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns - Bengals -3.5, Monday @ 8:15 PM

The Cincinnati Bengals are back.  So much so I placed a future on them to win the Super Bowl.  I don't know what took them so long, but they are back.  Not only is their high flying offense exploding again, but their defense hasn't given up a second half touchdown all season.  That's insane.

Also, until the Browns get Deshaun Watson back, they are worth betting against.


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