2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 10, NFL Week 9

  


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Brian Torchia - 18-8-2, NCAAF 9-4-1, NFL 9-4-1

Air Force Falcons vs. Army Black Knights - Under 40.5 - Saturday @ 11:30 AM

Another year, another Under between two service academies being talked about in this article.  This trend has really gained some attention these past few years and I see no reason why not to go to it this weekend.  

Since 2018, Unders between two service academies are 11-1-1 and the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under.  These teams both run the triple option and face off every year.  They're familiar with each other and the clock is just constantly ticking with the non-stop running, hence why we see the Unders hitting so frequently.  Add in the fact that both of these teams are coming off of bye weeks and we see even more reason why this could go under with the extra preparation time.  I see no reason why the Unders streak stops with this game.

#24 Texas Longhorns @ #13 Kansas State Wildcats - Texas -2.5, Saturday @ 7 PM

If you listened to our podcast this week, I teased what I thought was quite possibly the fishiest game of the year thus far and here it is, folks.  These types of games have been great to me this year, so when the Gambling Gods present me with another one, I just can't turn them away.

When I first saw this game on the schedule at the beginning of the week, we had another case of unranked team favored against a ranked team.  Well, that was before this week's rankings came out.  Texas snuck into the Top 25 but them being favored even before they were ranked was the first green flag.  

Secondly, in most of these games that I've taken this year similar to this one, the unranked team was favored as the home team.  Most teams get a few extra points baked into the line for being the home team, but that's not the case here, which also caught my attention.  

Lastly, both of these teams last played against Oklahoma State (Texas was on bye last week).  Texas lost to them 41-34 two weeks ago.  However, Kansas State absolutely whooped them last week, 48-0.  If Team A shuts out Team B and Team B beats Team C, it would only make sense that Team A > Team C, right? Wrong, according to Vegas.  This line is as fishy as it gets and everything is pointing to Texas winning by at least a field goal.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jaguars ML +105, Sunday @ 1 PM

I admittedly don't love the NFL board this week but I think this game presents a good opportunity.  While the Jaguars haven't been good, I don't think they should be home underdogs against a team that has really underperformed.

Both teams come into this game with only two wins on the year.  Jacksonville not only has failed to win their last five games, but they've also failed to cover in all five of those games, which is why I think we're seeing them as underdogs here.  However, the Raiders don't enter this game on a high note either, after getting shut out last week by the New Orleans Saints.  It's always gross having to rely on the Jacksonville Jaguars, but I'm going to hope we can avoid getting the Bad Trevor Lawrence this week and escape with a win against a spiraling Raiders team.

Antonio Wolfe - 15-21-2, NCAAF 3-10-2,  NFL 12-11-0

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears - Dolphins -5, Sunday @ 1PM

I think this line is unfairly evaluating the Dolphins season as a whole.  The Dolphins with Tua and the Dolphins without Tua are two different teams.  With Tua playing a full game, they don't lose.  They also have the best wide receiver duo in the game with Waddle and Hill.  This should be at least an 8 point spread against a terrible Bears team.  

I was so perplexed by this line that I looked at the weather in Chicago to see if it is having an effect on the line.  It's supposed to be 67 and sunny so I'm comfortable rolling with the Dolphins here.

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders - Vikings -3.5, Sunday @ 1PM

I will just copy and paste from last week:

"I love the Vikings this season.  They are firing on all cylinders during games that aren't played under the bright lights.  Any time the Vikings are playing outside of primetime I will take them."  

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bucs -3, Sunday @ 4:25PM

I'm an absolute glutton for pain.  I see this Buccaneers team and they should be better than what they are.  They still have Tom Brady.  They still have Leonard Founette.  They still have Chris Godwin.  They still have Mike Evans.  This team should beat a struggling Rams team at home by a field goal or more.  Also, Rams receiver Cooper Kupp is hobbled with an ankle injury.  

So even though the Bucs continue to disappoint me, I'm riding with them again here on talent alone.

Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints - Saints +2.5, Monday @ 8:15PM

Home teams are 7-2 in nine Monday Night Football games this season (since there were two in Week 2).  For whatever reason, whether it be the fans being louder under the bright lights or the longer week favors the home team, road teams struggle on MNF.  So even if I don't like the Saints straight up this week, I do like them getting points in this spot against a Ravens team that has not impressed so far.




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