2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 11, NFL Week 10


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Brian Torchia - 21-8-2, NCAAF 11-4-1, NFL 10-4-1

#7 LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks - Arkansas +3.5 - Saturday @ 12 PM

On paper, these appear to be two teams trending in opposite directions.  Last week, Arkansas lost outright as 14 point favorites to Liberty, who were forced to play their fourth-string quarterback.  On the other hand, LSU had a huge upset victory against Alabama with a last second touchdown, and then converted a two-point conversion instead of kicking the tying extra point to win by 1.

I like Arkansas this week because it is the ultimate letdown spot for LSU.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season against an Alabama team that has dominated the SEC Conference for as long as I can remember.  LSU's win effectively knocked Alabama out of the College Football Playoff and saw them soar in the rankings, all the way up to #7 after a rocky start to the season.  I think Arkansas rights the ship at home this week, while LSU is in a lull after last week's heroics.

#4 TCU Horned Frogs @ #18 Texas Longhorns - Texas -7, Saturday @ 7 PM

I'm  sure I'm sounding like a broken record at this point but here we have another spread that just makes you scratch your head.  However, I do think there is a little more reasoning to backing the lower ranked favorite than just that.

While TCU may be ranked #4 and undefeated, it hasn't been overly convincing.  There are several teams ranked below them that I would consider to be better than them.  And if we learned anything from last week's Tennessee-Georgia game, it's that the College Football rankings don't particularly hold much weight at this point in the season.  Tennessee was ranked as the #1 team in the country, but were still underdogs to the #3 ranked Georgia Bulldogs.  Georgia went on to beat them pretty thoroughly, which I think is why we're seeing this spread as it is.  Texas has been much better in recent weeks and they covered for me last week, so I'm willing to go back to the well laying a touchdown with the Longhorns here.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers - Packers +4.5, Sunday @ 4:25 PM

Here's the hold-your-nose play of the week, boys and girls.  It's ugly.  I get it.  But I think if there was ever a buy-low opportunity on the Packers, it's this game.

Have the Packers lost their last 5 games?  Yes they have.  But while Aaron Rodgers has looked far from his regular self, and may be dealing with a thumb injury, I think water will find its level with this team this week.  He may not be living up to the standards we've seen from him but I want to believe Rodgers still has some magic left in him.  He threw three interceptions in the red zone against the Lions last week, which ultimately led to the Packers losing 15-9.  That just won't happen again.  Plus the Packers sport a 3-6 record this year and all three wins have come at home.  I just think the Packers keep this one close and can possibly even sneak out a win.  So while it feels gross, I'll gladly take the points.

CONTINGENCY PLAY:  Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams - Rams up to -3

This was my favorite play of the week until Matthew Stafford entered the concussion protocol midweek.  The line opened as Rams -3 but is now sitting at -1.5 with his status up in the air.

Rams coach Sean McVay sports a 6-1-1 record against the spread against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has never had success against this Rams defense.  If Stafford plays, I'm locking this one in up to -3.  If he doesn't, it's a no go for me.

Antonio Wolfe - 15-24-3, NCAAF 3-10-2,  NFL 12-14-1

I'm taking a week off to reassess, get my mind right, and figure out some trends that will actually make you all money.  I'm clearly lost when it comes to football betting right now.  Torchia is the clear expert right now. 

Back to the lab!  Stay tuned!