2022-23 Gold Lot Sports Betting Picks: NCAAF Week 12, NFL Week 11

 


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Brian Torchia - 22-9-2, NCAAF 12-5-1, NFL 11-4-1

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers - Packers -3 - Thursday @ 8:15 PM

I was high on this Packers team last week after losing five consecutive games and they rewarded me with an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys.  I liked what I saw out of them in that game, so I'm willing to back them again Thursday night.

As I mentioned in my write up of them last week, Green Bay is a lot better this year when playing at home.  Here, we get them at Lambeau Field once again, on a short week, against a Titans team I have not believed in all year.  Tennessee was able to squeak out a win on the road against the Denver Broncos last week, but I can't put too much stock into that given the current state of the Broncos.  If the Packers defense can limit Titans running back Derrick Henry from a monster game, I think Aaron Rodgers gets the Packers to a win against a team that is not nearly as good as the Cowboys team that he overcame a double-digit deficit from last week.

UAB Blazers @ #6 LSU Tigers - UAB +14.5, Saturday @ 9:00 PM

This play is more of a hunch than anything else based on the motivations of each team going into this game.

Last week, I had Arkansas +3.5 against LSU and they were able to cover in an ugly 13-10 loss.  After watching that game, I was very unimpressed by the LSU offense.  However, they were able to win the game, which gave them the SEC West title and secured their place in the SEC Championship game.  

UAB enters this game with a 5-5 record, one win away from guaranteeing playing in a bowl game.  Therefore, there is a lot on the line for them with only two games left in the season, while LSU comes into this game with very little to play for in a non-conference game.  I could see LSU resting some guys or pulling players early to avoid any injuries before the SEC title game, which will hopefully allow UAB to cover this number.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons - Under 49.5, Sunday 1:00 PM

This total caught my eye when I was looking at the lines for this week's games.  The Bears enter this game scorching hot, scoring 29+ points in their last four games.  Couple that with their lackluster defense, and their games have been flying over the totals.  Their last three games have seen the totals hit 60+, so I was a little confused as to why this number is so low.

The Falcons offense is nothing to write home about, yet they are favored in this game, which makes me believe Vegas doesn't think the Bears will have as much success as they have been recently.  You'd have to imagine that everyone is on the Over this week given how hot the Bears have been, but we've already seen the total drop a point from 50.5.  That makes me think that there's some sharp people on the Under here.  I'm willing to fade the public on this one and  keep my fingers crossed that it's a lower scoring affair than the past few games featuring Chicago.  

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings - Cowboys ML, Sunday @ 4:25 PM

Like I said above, I went against this Cowboys team in Green Bay last week.  It just wasn't a good spot for them.  But this is a week-to-week sport and just because I was on the other side of them last week doesn't mean I don't like them this week against an 8-1 Minnesota Vikings team.

Yes, you read that right... the Minnesota Vikings are 8-1.  They've certainly exceeded expectations so far this year, but I think their record is a bit fraudulent.  They were extremely lucky to escape with a win last week against the Buffalo Bills after being down three scores early in the second half.  Almost all of their wins have been by less than a touchdown.  A few things break differently in some of those games and this team could be nearing a .500 record.  I think this is a good bounce-back opportunity for the Cowboys after last week's loss and Vegas seems to think so as well, given the line is set at a pick 'em.  I'll take the Cowboys in this one against a fortunate Vikings team.

Antonio Wolfe - 15-24-3, NCAAF 3-10-2,  NFL 12-14-1

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts - Eagles -6.5, Sunday @ 1PM

This is my favorite pick of the year.  The Philadelphia Eagles are going to dominate the Indianapolis Colts.  It'll be one of those bets you don't sweat after the 1st quarter.  

So the Colts won in Jeff Saturday's first ever NFL game on Sunday despite everything working against him and never coaching at the NFL level.  Who cares? They beat the Las Vegas Raiders.  If the Raiders don't get the first overall pick in 2023, then they'll get one of the Top 5.  They stink.  Plus, there was zero film on Jeff Saturday's coaching style.  Now there is.  The Colts fired their coach for a reason: they stink.  And the Eagles coming off an embarrassing loss at home are looking to right the ship in a big way.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons - Bears +3, Sunday @ 1PM

I believe in Justin Fields.  It's pretty easy after the past few weeks.  He is putting up numbers we haven't seen before from a single quarterback.  Fields is proving to Bears fans he was the correct pick all along.

The Falcons appeared to be a frisky team earlier in the year, but ultimately when you have Marcus Mariota under center, there's only so far it will take you.  Also, there's this strange stat that anyone who plays the Carolina Panthers, loses their next game.  The Falcons played the Panthers on Thursday night last week.  They're due for a loss here, even at home.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants - Giants -3, Sunday @ 1PM

I don't understand what the books have against the Giants, but they have made me a lot of money this season so far.  I know it's not reflected in my standings above, but between the Giants and the Vikings, it's hard to not be profitable.  This is an above average Giants team against a Lions team that may be coming off a win, but only Justin Fields threw the worst pick six of his young career so far.  The Giants win this one convincingly at home.  




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