Gold Lot Sports: You Should Bet Bryan Reynolds to WIn the NL MVP


(Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press)

Bryan Reynolds is not the best player in the National League.  However, the likelihood of him winning the National League MVP Award greatly outweighs the odds you can get on him.  Currently, on FanDuel Sportsbook, Reynolds is listed to win the National League MVP at the odds of +10000.  For those of you who do not bet often, this means if you bet $100 on Reynolds to win MVP, you would receive $10,000 if he actually did.

I’m not suggesting you bet $100.  However, if you are a Pirates fan looking for something to root for the rest of the season, a $5 investment to potentially get a return of $500 seems worth your while.  Also, it is nearly impossible to win a +10000 bet usually.  However, when ESPN writers Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield ranked their MVPs on August 12th, they listed Bryan Reynolds as 4th behind Fernando Tatis, Max Muncy, and Brandon Crawford.  Since baseball writers are who vote for this award, I take stock in what they think.

High Value Bet

To put your +10000 odds in perspective, here are some other bets listed around that probability.  The St. Louis Cardinals to win the National League Championship Series are listed at +12000.  They are currently 10 games back in the NL Central and 4 games back for a wild card spot.  You can also bet the Carolina Panthers to win the Super Bowl at lesser odds (+9000).  The Panthers finished 5-11 last season. 

Would you prefer to take your chance with Virginia or Georgia Tech to take the ACC Championship from Clemson?  Perfect!  They are both listed at +10000 to do so, despite being picked to finish in the bottom four of the conference.

So purely out of value, a bet on Bryan Reynolds is worth your investment.

Fernando Tatis

Fernando Tatis is the best player in the National League.  I am not going to sugar coat it.  He leads the National League in homeruns with 33 and has 74 RBI.  Nobody else in the National League has more than 27 homeruns.  Additionally, Tatis would probably have more if not for injury.  However, that is the point: his injuries.

At this point, Tatis does not qualify to be placed in the leaders for any of the ratio stats (Average, OBP, OPS, etc.) He has been injury prone this season and appears to have ongoing back issues.  Not getting enough at-bats to qualify should play into the decision for MVP.  

This is surely not something I am rooting for.  I am a huge fan of good baseball and Tatis is great for baseball.  However, I am saying that he could fail to gather enough at-bats. If this were to be the case, I am not sure how the MVP voters would treat him.  He would need to remain the leader of homeruns or gain more ground on the RBI leaders. 

Max Muncy

Max Muncy has been red hot lately.  In the last 7 days, he has four homeruns and has an OPS of 1.116.  However, on the season as a whole he is not hitting that impressively.  Muncy currently has 26 homeruns, 70 RBI, and an OPS of .964.  He also has just a decent batting average at .274 which ranks him 24th in the National League.

In comparison, Bryan Reynolds has 21 homeruns, 71 RBI, and an OPS of .926.  However, he also has a batting average of .309, significantly better than Muncy, ranking him 4th in the National League. Reynolds also has more doubles than Muncy at 26 to 20. 

Brandon Crawford

When it comes to Brandon Crawford, I think Bryan Reynolds just flat out has better stats.  Reynolds has 26 more hits, has a better batting average, five more doubles, two more homeruns, and one more RBI.  Yes, all of those categories are close and they could all flip by the end of the season.  But at this point, Reynolds is a better hitter. 

Conclusion

I know there are other players like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto, but I don’t intend on taking up all of your time with this one article.  This article was focused on the ability of Bryan Reynolds to beat the three guys that two baseball writers, and potential MVP voters, had listed over him.  Plus all this and I almost forgot to mention Reynolds is 2nd among National League centerfielders in fielding percentage.

I’m not telling you to take out a second mortgage and bet thousands on Bryan Reynolds to win the MVP.  What I am telling you is that relative to other bets valued at +10000, this has a lot better chance of winning.  Also, if you need something to root for down the stretch, as a Pirates fan, this is a no-brainer.

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