Jump on This Pitt Point Spread Before It's Too Late

Photo obtained from PittsburghPanthers.com

I don't typically like to give out betting tips.  I feel terrible when they lose, especially if someone else lost on behalf of my tip, so I generally keep them to myself.  However, this Pitt vs WVU point spread on September 1st is just too good to pass up.  Pitt is currently just 6.5 point favorites at home on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Before even diving into the numbers, the Pitt Panthers are the clear better team going into 2022.  They did lose their Heisman finalist quarterback and Biletnikoff award winning wide receiver, but they replaced them with one of the hottest QB transfers on the market and the hottest wide receiver transfer (aside from Jordan Addison) with Kedon Slovis and Konata Mumpfield, respectively.  

Aside from Kenny Pickett and Addison, the Panthers essentially held onto everyone else from last season, including their entire offensive line.  Their defense, which was hardly a weakness last season, should be even better with all of the returning starters.  The reigning ACC Champions are expected to touch double digit wins again, and have few pit falls on their schedule with the Mountaineers not being one of them.  

West Virginia is coming off a 6-7 season, where they were 2-4 on the road.  They did get a transfer QB of their own in JT Daniels, but one guy can only do so much.  The Mountaineers also finished 0-4 on the road in 2020 and 3-3 on the road in 2019.  They just do not travel well as of late.  This does not bode well for trying to work in a new quarterback in front of a sold out away crowd at the newly named Acrisure Stadium. 

Using other sportsbooks lines or bets that surround a game is a great way to see if you're getting value in a bet.  FanDuel's -6.5 in favor of Pitt is in line with DraftKings at -7, but it's the other bets that surround this game that spark my interest.  WVU's win total is currently set at 5.5.  With Towson, Kansas, TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Virginia Tech all on the Mountaineers schedule, I would assume those are the matchups the books believe WVU could win.

Pitt has a total set at 9.5 wins in the regular season.  With Miami, Tennessee, Louisville, and Georgia Tech all posing as a larger threat than WVU, this clearly isn't one of the games that odds makers see being close.  Also consider that every game Pitt won last season was by 7 points or more, and it just further makes this -6.5 spread all that more appetizing.  

Then, if you don't trust me, consider other experts.  Here is professional handicapper, Ralph Michaels.  In a tweet unrelated to the Backyard Brawl specifically, he projected point spreads for every WVU game in general.  He has the Pitt line at -14 in Pitt's favor.  A larger deficit than he expects the Mountaineers to suffer against even Oklahoma and Texas!  


Furthermore, here are the signals from the Action app.  While the Big Money is on WVU, that can just be a couple big bettors thinking the Mountaineers found something with JT Daniels.  The signals I like to pay attention to are the Sharps.  These are those bettors known by the gambling community to fare better than the rest and on a more consistent basis.  The Sharps are all over Pitt.  Don't trust me?  Then, trust them.



Once preseason NFL games and Fantasy Football drafts are over, the public will begin to look at these Week 1 College Football and NFL point spreads.  At which point, the line will begin to move in Pitt's favor.  Anyone who watched college football last season knows that Pitt will win, and win big.  By kickoff the line will be at least -9.5 and maybe even -10.5.  Jump on this now before it's too late.

Comments