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Saturday’s game in Charlotte between the Pitt Panthers and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons certainly was not expected at the beginning of the season. Pitt was projected to finish somewhere in the middle of the Coastal division of the ACC conference, while Wake Forest was projected near the bottom of the Atlantic division. However, both teams have ridden outstanding offenses all the way to the ACC Championship game, both finishing the regular season 10-2.
Hartman Not to be Overlooked
While Kenny Pickett has garnered well deserved national
attention, Wake Forest’s quarterback, Sam Hartman, is right behind him in nearly
every statistic. Pickett has 4,066
passing yards to Hartman’s 3,711.
Pickett also has 40 passing touchdowns to Hartman’s 34. Hartman has thrown 10 interceptions on the
year while Pickett has only thrown 7.
So while Pickett does have the slight edge in every
category, Hartman is right on his heels.
Hartman has also accrued these statistics facing a couple tougher
defenses in NC State and Boston College, while not having the luxury of playing Georgia Tech and Duke like Pitt
did. Although, Wake's game against Army certainly helped pad the steps. Not to mention, Hartman is only a sophomore.
Wake Forest does have a slightly more effective rushing attack than Pitt’s which takes some opportunities away from Hartman. In their 942 offensive plays this season, the Panthers have ran the ball 455 times or 48% of their offensive snaps. The Demon Deacons have had 923 offensive plays and have run the ball 53% of time for 489 attempts.
None of this is not to diminish what Pickett has done
so far this season. I firmly believe Pickett should win the Heisman. However, it is to point out that Hartman is extremely talented, even when compared to Pickett. It also highlights just how effective Wake Forest's passing attack has been.
Furthermore, while Pitt has who I believe to be the best wide receiver in the nation in sophomore Jordan Addison, Wake Forest has their own sophomore phenom. A.T. Perry has 13 touchdowns on the season, with 55 receptions for 1,112 receiving yards. Any receiver that has broken that 1000 yard mark on the year is worth keeping an eye on, and the Panthers will need to keep several on Perry.
As we know, as Pitt fans, or if we have some readers who are
just tuning in for this one, the Pitt defense does not fare well against good
passing offenses. Against Brennan Armstrong
and the Virginia Cavaliers, Pitt’s secondary gave up 487 passing yards and
three touchdowns. Which was only
slightly worse than the 428 yards and three touchdowns they gave up to freshman
Tyler Van Dyke and the Miami Hurricanes.
The Panthers fared slightly better against North Carolina’s Sam Howell, giving
up just 296 yards and two touchdowns. But
the trend is clear. Pitt cannot stop the
pass.
Establish the Run
Luckily, Wake Forest is about as bad defending the run as
Pitt is defensing the pass. In their
loss to North Carolina, that strangely does not count as a conference game
(find out why here), they gave up 213 yards and four touchdowns to senior Tar
Heel Ty Chandler. In their only other
loss this season, Wake Forest gave up 191 yards on the ground to Clemson
sophomore Kobe Pace.
Pitt will need to take advantage of running back Israel Abanikanda being available for Saturday’s game after missing the game at Syracuse last week. Although, Pitt had no problem running the ball against Syracuse without Abanikanda, with Vincent Davis and Rodney Hammond combining for 129 rushing yards on the night.
High Scoring
Therefore, it will come down to who will turn the ball over
less and who can establish the run more.
I expect with Pitt’s rushing defense outranking Wake’s by a considerable
margin so far this season that Pitt will establish the run more effectively. I also believe that Kenny Pickett
will take care of the ball better than Hartman.
However, if Wake can score at the speed at which North Carolina and
Virginia did against Pitt in the 2nd half of each of those games, Pitt will need to be
perfect on offense to come out with the win.
Both defenses are a liability so the more efficient offense will win
this game for their team.
Also, bet the Over and Hail to Pitt!